Republican Leader Polls - 12/27/07
(Click On Map To Enlarge It)
Changes since last published map: Michigan: The previous Rasmussen poll of Michigan showed Huckabee with a slight lead in a very tight three-way race with Romney and Giuliani. The most recent Detroit News poll indicates that Giuliani's support is evaporating in the state of Michigan as it is nationwide and that Romney may be leading in what is now a Romney-Huckabee race. Nevada: There have been no new polls since the last time we published the Republican Leader Map. However, the Mason-Dixon and American Research Group polls of this state were conducted almost simultaneously with the M-D poll showing Giuliani in the lead and AMG showing Romney in the lead. With Giuliani support shrinking nationwide it makes sense to lean toward the results provided by AMG. Florida: Just hours before our last map was published, Rasmussen released polling data showing Huckabee moving into the lead in Florida. Since that time several pollsters have released information indicating that Giuliani support in Florida is deteriorating but that he maintains his lead there at this time. Deleware: This poll has been dropped from the map. It is probably the best indicator we have at the present time of Republican voter preference in Deleware, however, it was conducted by the Wilmington Republican Region rather than a professional pollster and its accuracy cannot be verified. It showed Huckabee in a small lead over Giuliani. Ohio and Missouri: The Rasmussen poll upon which we have based these states was actually a head-to-head poll against Democrats in which Huckabee polled better than all other Republican candidates. This did not poll Republicans against one another, but does seem to be the best indicator of Ohio and Missouri support that we have at the present time. Illinois: This Chicago Tribune/WGN TV poll is being reported as a tie between Giuliani and Huckabee. The margin of error does present a statistical tie, however, the actual numbers shows a slight lead for Giuliani so that is what is represented on the map.
National Polling: The Rasmussen National Daily Tracking Poll has shown Mike Huckabee leading the Republican field of candidates every day since December 11. Polls conducted by Fox News and NBC/Wall Street Journal are often quoted showing Rudy Giuliani leading nationally, however, those polls are now more than 10 days old and must be discounted due to the rapidly shifting trends in this election.
State by state polling data: Documentation for state polls is now organized by caucus and primary date.
National - Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen)
January 3
Iowa - Mike Huckabee (Strategic Vision)
January 9
New Hampshire - Mitt Romney (Boston Globe)
January 15
Michigan - Mitt Romney (Detroit News)
January 19
Nevada - Mitt Romney (American Research Group)
South Carolina - Mike Huckabee (CBS News)
January 29
Florida - Rudy Giuliani (Survey USA)
February 5
Alabama - Fred Thompson (Capital Survey Research Center)
Arizona - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Arkansas - Mike Huckabee (Global Strategy Group)
California - Rudy Giuliani (Field)
Colorado - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Georgia - Mike Huckabee (Strategic Vision)
Illinois - Rudy Giuliani (Chicago Tribune/WGN TV)
Missouri - Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen)
North Carolina - Mike Huckabee (Public Policy Polling)
New Jersey - Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac)
New York - Giuliani (Siena)
Ohio - Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen)
Oklahoma - Mike Huckabee (Tulsa World)
February 9
Kansas - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Washington (Caucus Feb. 9 - Primary Feb. 19) - Rudy Giuliani (Washington Poll)
February 19
Wisconsin - Rudy Giuliani (Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert's College)
March 4
Texas - Mike Huckabee (IVR)
April 22
Pennsylvania - Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac)
Permissions: You are permitted and encouraged to reproduce and distribute the map provided that you do not alter it in any way.
2 comments:
Why is the entiore intermountain west deleted? Romney is going to clean house out west. There would be easily as much green, if not more, than red on this map??
Don't forget that Mormon pioneers settled and founded Las Vegas, Loas Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco ands hundreds of other Western cities, the influence is still strong.
LDS votes don't stand out because they always vote in line with evangelicals (same values). Don't underestimate the LDS vote. Most people don't realize that only 14% of Mormons live in Utah, there are millions of them all over the US.
Many of the ones I know are deeply offended by Huckabee's crusade against Mormons (whisper and inuendo). I would anticipate an exodus from the GOP if they felt for one second that the GOP/Huck snubbed Romney solely because of his faith.
Just food for thought..
RWOTW, we do not know of any recent polls for the states you mention. If you have knowledge of some, please send us the pertinent data. Thanks.
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