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The above map illustrates GOP presidential candidate leaders by state, as determined by election results and polls conducted within the last 45 days.
Changes since last published map. National: The lead in national polling has been flipping and flopping more frequently than Mitt Romney's policy positions and John McCain is now registering in the lead. Michigan: Just a few days ago, a poll conducted by Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor was showing a nice lead for Huckabee in Michigan, but the McCain surge has definitely hit here. However, Michigan is another of Romney's home states, and the Daily Kos is endorsing him so there will be some Democratic crossover for him. And, don't count out Huckabee yet as there is strong support for him coming from labor unions, homeschoolers, and evangelicals amongst others. South Carolina: Justs a few weeks ago Mike Huckabee had a seventeen point lead in South Carolina. Two polls released this week indicate that McCain has now moved into the lead. However, people on the ground in South Carolina are saying that the polls are registering soft support for McCain coming from current momentum and it is generally expected that Huckabee will resume his lead in South Carolina before the primary on January 19. Florida: Another Southern state unexpectedly caught by the momentum of the Straight Talk Express. Alabama: For some time now everyone has known that Fred Thompson had fallen by the wayside in Alabama and that Mike Huckabee was leading. The Capital Survey Research Center polling verifies this shift. California: Data for this state is a bit iffy. Everyone knows that the most recent public poll information is now obsolete. Perhaps the best gauge we have is an unreleased private poll conducted by a Democratic strategist. We have included the shift of California to McCain, but have reservations because it also shows the former leader, Rudy Giuliani, moving into fourth place in the Golden State.
State by state polling data: Documentation for state polls is organized by caucus and primary date.
National - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Iowa - Mike Huckabee
Wyoming - Mitt Romney
New Hampshire - John McCain
Michigan - John McCain (Mitchell Interactive)
Nevada - Mitt Romney (American Research Group)
South Carolina - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Florida - John McCain (Survey USA)
Alabama - Mike Huckabee (Capital Survey Research Center)
Arizona - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Arkansas - Mike Huckabee (Global Strategy Group)
California - John McCain (private poll)
Colorado - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Georgia - Mike Huckabee (Strategic Vision)
Illinois - Rudy Giuliani (Chicago Tribune/WGN TV)
Missouri - Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen)
Montana - Mike Huckabee (Gazette State Poll)
New Jersey - Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac)
New York - Rudy Giuliani (Survey USA)
Oklahoma - Mike Huckabee (Tulsa World)
Kansas - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Washington (Caucus Feb. 9 - Primary Feb. 19) - Rudy Giuliani (Washington Poll)
Wisconsin - Rudy Giuliani (Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert's College)
Pennsylvania - Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac)
North Carolina - Mike Huckabee (Public Policy Polling)
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