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The above map illustrates GOP presidential candidate leaders by state, as determined by election results and polls conducted within the last 45 days.
Changes since last published map. Since the last published leader map, we have had three primary/caucuses with Mitt Romney winning Michigan and Nevada and John McCain winning South Carolina. The next state primary will take place on January 29 in the state of Florida where Rudy Giuliani's hard work seems to be working; he has recovered the lead but less than 6 points separates the top four contenders. Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which were both formerly Rudy Giuliani strongholds, have responded to the McCain momentum. This is real news but has barely been mentioned in the media. Massachusetts appears on the map for the first time and it should be no surprise to anyone that its former governor Mitt Romney is leading there. Maryland and Connecticut appear on our map for the first time and are painted yellow for John McCain. Arizona, Colorado, and Kansas have been dropped from the map as the polling data for those states is now more than 45 days old. However, it would seem obvious that John McCain is still leading in these states.
State by state polling data: Documentation for state polls is organized by caucus and primary date.
National - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Iowa - Mike Huckabee
Wyoming - Mitt Romney
New Hampshire - John McCain
Michigan - Mitt Romney
Florida - Rudy Giuliani (Insider Advantage)
Alabama - Mike Huckabee (Univ. of South Alabama)
Arkansas - Mike Huckabee (Global Strategy Group)
California - John McCain (Rasmussen)
Connecticut - John McCain (Hartford Courant)
Georgia - Mike Huckabee (Strategic Vision)
Illinois - Rudy Giuliani (Chicago Tribune/WGN TV)
Maryland - John McCain (Baltimore Sun)
Massachusetts - Mitt Romney (Survey USA)
Missouri - Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen)
Montana - Mike Huckabee (Gazette State Poll)
New Jersey - John McCain (Rasmussen)
New York - Rudy Giuliani (Survey USA)
Oklahoma - Mike Huckabee (Survey USA)
Washington (Caucus Feb. 9 - Primary Feb. 19) - Rudy Giuliani (Washington Poll)
Wisconsin - Rudy Giuliani (Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert's College)
Pennsylvania - John McCain (Keystone Poll)
North Carolina - Mike Huckabee (Public Policy Polling)
Permissions: You are permitted and encouraged to reproduce and distribute the map provided that you do not alter it in any way.