In the 1982 comedy, Best Friends, Goldie Hawn and Burt Reynolds play Paula and Richard, a newly married couple who decide to travel to meet each other's parents. They arrive in Buffalo to spend some time with Paula's parents who are elderly and in declining health.
In one scene Paula describes to her new husband how she copes with the reality that her parents are aging and will one day die. She says she 'practices'. She explains that she imagines that they have already died, she allows herself to become very sad, so that she is going through a rehearsal of sorts to prepare her for when it really happens.
Richard (Burt Reynolds) is perplexed by this coping mechanism/ritual. He asks, "Okay, let me get this straight. In your mind you kill off your parents now, so you won't feel bad later?"
That scene came to mind recently as I attended the Defending The American Dream Summit in Austin, Texas. Many of the conservatives I met seem to have accepted the premise that an Obama presidency is inevitable, like death. There were jokes about 're-education camps' established once Obama was sworn into office, mixed with perilous predictions about what an Obama presidency will do to the economy, the make-up of the Supreme Court, and the liberties we are desperately trying to preserve.
While I understand that conservatives in general tend to be realists rather than idealists, I think this Republican mope-ishness that has descended upon the party and has also spilled over to many independents/libertarians is really uncalled for. It ain't over till it's over. Barack Obama sitting in the Oval Office come January is NOT a forgone conclusion. There is no need for us to be like the Paula character from the movie - no need for us to 'practice' for an Obama victory by becoming all sad and gloomy now, as if that will help us cope better should Obama actually win.
Many of the speakers at the Defending The American Dream Summit went a long way in counteracting the negative mood. Michelle Malkin, Robert Novak, John Fund and others were all very positive about the prospects for a McCain victory in the Fall, not a wishful thinking optimism but one grounded in facts.
For example, Malkin drew the obvious parallels between the experience and character of Obama versus McCain. Novak raised the issue of historical negative indicators which usually prove deadly for presidential candidates - incumbent party seeking a third term, unpopular war, low approval rating of standing President from the same party, etc. By all accounts Obama should be running away with this thing but he is not. The fact that the race is so tight despite the fact that McCain is facing ALL of these historical 'deal breakers' says a lot about McCain's ability to overcome and prevail.
John Fund of the Wall Street Journal cited some interesting statistics. In eight out of the last ten elections, the Democratic candidate was leading in July. Only three of those went on to actually win. Democrats tend to poll better in the summer when people are busy with barbeques and family vacations but still relatively unengaged politically. In the Fall, people start to pay attention and tend to focus on the bigger picture. The race tightens. If that pattern holds, McCain stands to gain a lot of ground starting in mid to late September.
Cheer up conservatives! It is not necessary to practice sadness and despair now, rehearsing for an Obama presidency which may never come.